Credible nuclear deterrence effects, debunking dogmatic "disarm or be annihilated" enemy propaganda. Realistic effects and credible nuclear weapon capabilities for deterring or stopping aggressive invasions and attacks which could escalate into major conventional or nuclear wars.

Monday, May 11, 2015

North Korea's Kim Jong-Un on 8 May 2015 successfully tested his first SLBM (Submarine launched ballistic missile)

Kim Jong-Un attending his May 2015 successful SLBM test
North Korea's Kim Jong-Un on Friday 8 May 2015 successfully tested his first SLBM (Submarine launched ballistic missile), which follows nuclear testing and the launch of a satellite into orbit in 2012.  Being optimistic, maybe this is just a global peace and international trade program, so maybe he'll sell the system cheaply to the UK to replace Trident, without adding many billions to the £1.56 trillion UK national debt and austerity problems. If you prefer to take a more pessimistic view, North Korea may join China, Russia and Iran as nuclear states with an anti-Western outlook that could all end up joining into a military alliance.

Update (20 May 2015): Reuters has just reported that U.S. Admiral James Winnefeld has claimed that North Korea not only has nuclear weapons, missiles and submarines, but also advanced photo-editing capabilities which faked some details in the photos above. "They have not gotten as far as their clever video editors and spinmeisters would have us believe," said Winnefeld, who is vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Analysis seen by Reuters from German aerospace engineers Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker of Schmucker Technologie appeared to support Winnefeld's statement.  The Munich-based pair said photos of the launch were "strongly modified", including reflections of the missile exhaust flame in the water which did not line up with the missile itself." 

Problem: this is subjective criticism, not objective criticism that is constructive.  There are anomalies in many photos that take some explaining, which is why time-wasters still try to dismiss NASA moon landing photos, when they can't understand the angle of a shadow, the position of a lens cross-hair on an image, or whatever.  The fact is, the level of risk is so high that finding trivial and controversial arguments to use to ignore the risk can be more dangerous than risking a false-alarm, as was the case when the U.S. Navy made of the impending air-launched torpedo attack on Pearl Harbor before 7 December, because they were falsely sure that torpedoes need 75 ft of water, and Pearl was only 30 ft deep. They simply convinced themselves that anyone sounding alarmed was an alarmist, that Japan couldn't innovate, and was years from any attack. It is better sometimes to risk a false alarm, than to risk WWIII.  Any nuclear SLBM launched on a densely populated city with no ABM or civil defense, even with just a single small 7 kt warhead and an imprecise guidance system, could cause problems because it might not immediately be clear whose submarine launched it.  Since we don't have any samples of North Korean plutonium, we won't necessarily be able to fingerprint it from fallout samples, particularly if it was detonated 100 km up over California or New York, for EMP effects.  This prevents effective retaliation because even when your satellite tracks back to the submarine launch position in the sea, it could be anybody's submarine!  This scenario would therefore destabilize conventional nuclear deterrence.  North Korea, China and Russia could all be potential aggressors.  You would not know which it was.


As we explained in 2013, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was photographed on 29 March 2013 in front of a large map labelled “U.S. Mainland Strike Plan,” with missile trajectories plotted from North Korea to four American state targets: Hawaii (Pacific), San Diego (California), Washington D.C., and Austin (Texas):





North Korea has tested nuclear weapons (0.48 kiloton on 9 Oct 2006, 2.35 kilotons on 25 May 2009, and 7.7 kilotons on 12 Feb 2013) and missiles, placing a satellite in orbit on 12 Dec 2012 using a 3-stage rocket.  Again, as explained in the previous post in the context of Dr Harold Brode's new book about cold warfare nuclear deterrence, what we need are tactical nuclear warheads (even if they are delivered by SLBM missiles) to deter or at least stop naval and tank invasions, not weapons that threaten civilian cities.  Dictators are housed in strong bunkers, and historically have often cashed in with propaganda when another country bombs their civilians (or threatens to do so).  It makes a lot more sense to target military invasion means, than to target civilian cities.  As proved by Reagan's decision to deploy the neutron bomb W79-1 in Western Europe in the 1980s, this strategy of credible military deterrence doesn't detrimentally escalate the arms race; it removes an incentive for enemy aggression, thereby reducing or ending threats and tensions.


UK assessment of SLBM (submarine launched ballistic missile) threat to the USA from various early Russian submarine systems, which is also applicable to the emerging North Korean SLBM threat once it is deployed in the near future.

8 May 2015 also marked the 70th anniversary of VE Day, causing on 9 May 2015 the biggest ever Russian May Day Military Parade, which unveiled President Putin's new armaments for invasions, such as his new T-14 Armata main battle tanks (featuring remote controlled turrets and reinforced crew capsules) together with loads of older Soviet SU-100 tank destroyers. In addition, Russia paraded its VPK-7829 armored personnel carrier and infantry fighting vehicles Kurganets-25 and Armata T-15, as well as unveiling a brand new self-propelled artillery piece, the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV.

This reinforces the need for deploying the neutron bomb:


How to Spot Russia's New Tanks at the May 9 Victory Day Parade, The Moscow Times:

The early fruits of Russia's massive military buildup will be proudly displayed on May 9 as the centerpieces of the Victory Day parade, which this year marks the 70th anniversary of Nazi Germany's defeat in World War II.
Vintage 1940s hardware will parade alongside top-of-the-line equipment, some of which has not yet even entered serial production, in a ritualistic show of force that dates back to the days of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin. 
The new tanks and armored vehicles to be formally unveiled on May 9 were developed under a staggering 20 trillion ruble ($395 billion) 10-year rearmament campaign announced in 2010. During Putin's live call-in on April 16, he promised that by the end of the decade 70 percent of the equipment fielded by Russia's military will be new hardware.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping united at 9 May 2015 Moscow Parade.  Western sanctions on Russia, and refusals to attend the Moscow parade after the Russian invasion of Crimea and its military support for insurgency in Ukraine are driving together eastern regimes with an anti-Western outlook.  China is a long-time friend of North Korea; Iran is a friend of Russia:


"As Western sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine continue to bite, Russia has increasingly appeared to pivot away from Europe and focus more on developing relations with China. ... Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian defence analyst and expert on weaponry, said the parade was intended to send a message to the world that Russia is back as a great military power. 'It’s a sign of Russia’s defiance, that the Western 
attempts to kind of ignore Russia will not work, that Russia is strong and it has powerful friends,' Felgenhauer said. ... Other prominent figures at the parade included Alexander Zaldostanov, the leather-clad leader of the nationalist motorcycle club Night Wolves, with whom Putin has ridden. 'There are three things to say after the parade today: the enemy will be destroyed; victory will be ours; Russia forward,' said Zaldostanov, known as The Surgeon." - The Scotsman, 10 May 2015.


8 May 2015 saw the resignation of UK Labour Party leader Ed Milliband and UK Liberal Democrat leader and deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg after an unpredicted general election result which gave Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron an increase in his share of the vote to a majority, effectively destroying all opponents.  In Scotland the ultra nationalist pro-separatist and anti-UK party, the Scottish National Party (SNP), gained 56 of the 59 MPs.  The fact that the SNP gained 56 MPs with only 4.7% of the votes (1.4 million votes) while UKIP gained only 1 MP despite getting 12.6% of the votes (3.9 million votes) highlighted the undemocratic representation of Britain's voting system, which is more like a dictatorship than the true democracy of Ancient Greece which was a daily referendum on issues, not the election of a choice between two clones, once every five years.  The SNP want to break up the UK and gain independence, or to end austerity and increase spending for Scotland.  The UK has a £1.56 trillion national debt and any extra money for Scotland (which already receives excess under the Barnett formula) will increase discontent in other areas.  It may be better to break up than to end up with multicultural hatred within the UK.  It is a disaster to try to use bribery and corruption to unify and hold together peoples who want independence.

Update: the Tu-95 thermonuclear bomber border-buzzing incidents near UK airspace



Above: in 2014, a 6-Squadron Typhoon fighter escorts a Russian Tu-95 Bear thermonuclear bomber aircraft away from British airspace. Photo: UK Ministry of Defence. Since the Ukraine crisis and Crimean invasion of January 2014, Britain's Royal Air Force has been dogged by regular incursions of Russian Tu-95 Cold War thermonuclear bomber aircraft near UK airspace.  NATO policy is to escort the Russian thermonuclear bombers away from NATO airspace.  In October 2014, two such incidents occurred within the space of just three days.  



Above: Daily Mail graphic showing how 26 Russian bombers, air refuelling tankers and fighters were intercepted in a 24 hour period in Europe (by 30 October 2014, over 100 Russian aircraft had been intercepted, more than triple the number in 2013). A further Daily Mail article on 14 May 2015 lists a catalogue of buzzing incidents involving Russian thermonuclear-deliver aircraft being escorted away from UK airspace.

Israel's Prime Minister Ben Netanyahu has warned that President Obama may be making an error in pushing for a peace deal with Iran, effectively to give it permission to get nuclear weapons to bomb Israel (especially now the price of oil has collapsed due to American fracking success). Democrat lawyers in Congress are obsessed, just like Chamberlain was, with signing peace treaties to appease potential aggressors! With all due respect to the bedouin and Iranian Arabs, in fact they have been fighting each another as a ritual sport for centuries to overcome boredom in the deserts of the Middle East (unlike the Jews who only fight to survive). Also, the Arabs have many times succumbed to war temptation, launching surprise attacks on Israel! If Israel is drawn into war with Iran, America and Britain will step in to defend Israel and then since Iran's ally is Russia, it will give Putin his excuse to go in history with the other dictators for starting a world war like Russia's Stalin did when he invaded Poland in 1939, in the Soviet-Nazi joint pact that he signed and agreed with Hitler.

"Putin's spending binge means that, for the budget to balance, Brent crude must now average around $117 a barrel, more than five times the level needed in 2006, according to analysis from Deutsche Bank. Even that is not enough for top officials. Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, said last week that, in 2013, the average bribe in Russia had doubled to $4,000. Last year, Transparency International gave Russia 127th place on its Corruption Perception Index, rating it as corrupt as Pakistan, Mali and Madagascar." - Oliver Bullough (Caucasus editor at the Institute of War and Peace Reporting), "Vladimir Putin: The rebuilding of ‘Soviet’ Russia",http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26769481


Economic problems precipitate wars.  WWI was due to German economic ambitions to acquire colonies and wealth.  WWII was due to the financial needs of Hitler to fund his National Socialism (Nazi) politics of full employment, autobahn, massive military forces, etc., through invasions.  Politicians are elected to solve the problem of massive state debt and general poverty.  Increasing tax rates just makes businesses fold and entrepreneurs leave the country.  So they end up using the age-old tactic of unifying the people by scapegoating enemies and launching invasions, ostensibly to protect their vital interests.  Aggressive policies gain support from arms industries, the military, and the impoverished.

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